Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 7.898136 9.072256 10.338786 11.803800 13.448847 15.236092 17.321809
2026-02-01 6.193733 7.784555 9.635959 11.938473 14.712966 17.935444 21.947685
2026-02-08 5.220301 6.957888 9.081784 11.847802 15.331341 19.547428 25.007699
2026-02-15 4.465393 6.279089 8.596695 11.742090 15.861254 21.029498 27.955298
2026-02-22 3.956883 5.828986 8.314694 11.809222 16.539332 22.655949 31.088385
2026-03-01 3.630566 5.576957 8.251467 12.130758 17.536415 24.712994 34.852637
2026-03-08 3.200826 5.124532 7.858462 11.946548 17.805360 25.782478 37.320170
2026-03-15 2.743760 4.578779 7.275744 11.431801 17.554324 26.098054 38.738473
2026-03-22 2.570463 4.442104 7.271417 11.741973 18.479298 28.072622 42.530820
2026-03-29 2.396385 4.284092 7.216325 11.962149 19.271078 29.879327 46.148494
2026-04-05 2.173464 4.022969 6.976634 11.874944 19.585236 30.992510 48.793992
2026-04-12 1.965925 3.765616 6.718962 11.734306 19.797530 31.949162 51.231091
2026-04-19 1.802917 3.572294 6.554614 11.737948 20.244219 33.294243 54.336632
2026-04-26 1.673073 3.424859 6.454199 11.836797 20.843600 34.895696 57.897535
2026-05-03 1.527725 3.233070 6.259865 11.759128 21.142564 36.030047 60.766955
2026-05-10 1.392622 3.046151 6.057486 11.649797 21.375815 37.060793 63.503600
2026-05-17 1.297113 2.925652 5.962890 11.717997 21.903301 38.574848 67.053027
2026-05-24 1.244080 2.884319 6.009060 12.036791 22.870386 40.836578 71.882537
2026-05-31 1.131071 2.708228 5.788174 11.854034 22.952043 41.635695 74.351364
2026-06-07 0.990599 2.458612 5.405252 11.342746 22.419978 41.377206 75.052570
2026-06-14 0.954621 2.431776 5.456083 11.650814 23.370079 43.661408 80.075675
2026-06-21 0.911373 2.384224 5.461195 11.869476 24.164523 45.704256 84.756135
2026-06-28 0.841062 2.267381 5.315503 11.782869 24.387241 46.758492 87.779339